Butterflies across Europe face crisis as climate change looms
11 December 2008. Climate change will cause Europe to lose much of its biodiversity as projected by a comprehensive study on future butterfly distribution. The “Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies” by Butterfly Conservation Europe and others predicts northward shifts in potential distribution area of many European butterfly species. As early warning indicators of environmental change, butterflies are a valuable tool to assess overall climate change impact and to provide some indication on the chances to come nearer to the target of halting the loss of biodiversity by 2010 set by the EU Heads of State in 2001.
The study outlines the consequences of climate change on butterfly distribution by defining three possible future scenarios. The worst-case scenario scientists examined sees the average European temperature rise by 4.1ºC by 2080. In that case over 95% of the present land occupied by 70 different butterflies would become too warm for continued survival. Yet, the best case-scenario sees a 2.4ºC temperature rise. Even this would mean that 50% of the land occupied by 147 different butterflies would become too warm for them to continue to exist there.
As temperatures rise, the majority of butterfly species will try to head north. This won’t always be achievable because areas of suitable habitat are often too small and too far apart for butterflies to travel between them owing to forestry and farming changes. Many butterflies will then largely disappear from where they are regularly seen now. The Small Tortoiseshell will become absent from a huge swathe of middle and southern Europe and will become restricted to northern Europe. Under the worst-case scenario, rare species like the Spanish Festoon Zerynthia rumina would experience a 97% loss from Spain and Southern France, and the Apollo Parnassius apollo would suffer a 76% loss from mountainous areas.
Climate change is already having an impact on butterflies. Over 60 mobile species with widespread food-plants are known to have spread north in Europe over recent decades, including the Comma Polygonia c-album, which is spreading north in the UK at 10km per year. Other species have moved further up mountains.
The “Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies” is the result of the cooperation of numerous researchers from across Europe under the EU Sixth Framework programme projects: ALARM (Assessing Large-scale Environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) and MACIS (Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on biodiversity). The “Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies” is also based on the data collected by tens of thousands of volunteers.- Download the brochure
- Visit Butterfly Conservation website
- Butterfly Conservation on Countdown 2010 website
